Hamas wins Palestinian election by landslide

Like many people who follow Mideast affairs, I am digesting the news today that Hamas has won a stunning landslide, 76 out of 132 seats, in the Palestinian elections. Hamas can now form a majority government, and not a weaker coalition government as had been widely expected. I know that I certainly did not expect this, and it appears clear that Israel did not expect it, either.

Over the coming days and weeks, there will be lots of hyper-analysis, handwringing, and attempts at prognostication. I'll contribute my own two cents here. This is not a commentary upon terrorism, or upon Hamas' methods. It is intended as a dispassionate abstract analysis of how these events transpired. What can we attribute the success of Hamas to?

1. The United States validated Hamas by interejecting itself into the election process and trying to influence the outcome. It seems that the Bush administration feared that Hamas might become a real player in a political process that the United States itself had already endorsed - thus leaving the United States in the embarrassing position of having to accept the unacceptable outcome. To avert that, the Bush administration poured funds into the election, hoping to bolster Fatah's chances of winning. For an US administration that is used to skirting constitutional processes, this attempt to influence another country's election probably seemed like just another day at the office. But to the rest of the world in general, and the Palestinians in particular, it was yet more evidence of American imperialism and hypocrisy. And to many Palestinians, it confirmed their suspicions that Fatah had grown too complacent with the status quo, and gotten too friendly with the United States. The benefactor of this heavy-handed and not-very-well-concealed American intervention? Hamas, which emerged as the party that America clearly feared more than Fatah.

2. Israel - never one to learn from the mistakes of the United States - likewise validated Hamas. Israel declared that if Hamas were on the ballot, the election would not take place - thus reinforcing the impression that Hamas is the certified opposite number to the Israeli government. The Israelis followed up that threat with a similar ultimatum; if Hamas candidates were on the ballot, they would not be permitted to campaign. Every action that Israel has taken has backfired on them, to the benefit of Hamas.

3. The Palestinian Authority and the Fatah party were undeniably corrupt. After decades of power and nepotism, Fatah had grown into another Mideast regime, albeit without all the ordinary trappings. The average Palestinian burned inwardly with rage at seeing Fatah politicians and PA officials driving Mercedes, using their political connections to start businesses, mismanaging UN funds, and ignoring the poverty of the common man.

But that only describes the problem. Why was Hamas the solution?

At a time when Yasser Arafat and Fatah were mired in corruption or aloof neglect, the leaders of Hamas were devout and socially minded. They enforced strict discipline among their ranks, respected the Islamic traditions of the common man and woman, and avoided any show of ostentatious wealth. While the existing Palestinian authorities were busy lining their own pockets, Hamas focused on meeting the needs of the ordinary people by building schools and hospitals.

This did not happen overnight; Hamas spent decades laying the foundation for building grassroots support. Of course, they could not have enjoyed such spectacular success if the ground had not been so fertile in the first place. Had the United States and Israel honestly engaged the Palestinians in the 1980s, 1990s, and in our current decade, then the popular impression of Arafat and Fatah as ineffectual would not have lingered. Had the United States used its considerable influence with Israel - instead of simply sitting back and watching as Israeli tanks and helicopters destroyed entire Palestinian neighborhoods -- then the seeds of rage might not have been planted for future generations to reap. Had the world community spoken more loudly as Israel continued its policy of appropriating Palestinian land and handing it over to right-wing settlers, then perhaps the events of this election could have been changed. But as things sit now, the outcome was entirely predictable - even if few people actually predicted it.

Arafat has been dead for over a year now, and Sharon lies in a coma from which he will probably never recover. The old guard is dead; the new guard stands poised to take over. This will be interesting to watch.